# Pre-launch MRR calculator: project revenue from your waitlist A pre-launch MRR calculator works out the monthly recurring revenue your waitlist could bring on launch day. Launch customers are your waitlist times the share who pay, and MRR is those customers times your monthly price. It then moves the count forward 12 months with churn and new customers, and shows the waitlist your target needs. Use it free, with no signup, at https://getlaunchlist.com/tools/prelaunch-mrr-projector. Updated 2026-10-15. ## What you enter - **People on your waitlist**: Count only people who confirmed their email, if you asked them to. - **Share who pay at launch**: Your own guess, as a percentage. 3% is the low end of the range Lenny's Newsletter calls good for freemium products, used as the nearest published comparison. - **Monthly price**: For a yearly plan, divide the yearly price by 12. - **Monthly churn**: Share of paying customers who cancel each month. A placeholder: set 0% if everyone pays yearly up front. - **New paying customers a month**: From people who find you after launch. Base it on a channel you already have. - **Launch MRR you want**: Your target, used to work out the waitlist you need. ## How it's calculated MRR is monthly recurring revenue: what your paying customers pay you each month. The calculator turns your waitlist into launch-day customers, then moves the count forward one month at a time. - **Launch customers = waitlist × share who pay.** - **MRR = customers × monthly price.** **ARR = MRR × 12.** - **Customers next month = customers × (1 - churn) + new customers a month.** - **Where the count settles = new customers a month ÷ churn.** At that size, the customers who cancel each month equal the ones who join. - **Waitlist for your target = target MRR ÷ (share who pay × price)**, rounded up. - **Revenue in the first year** adds up the MRR of the first 12 months, from launch day to month 11. It assumes one price, that everyone who will pay does so on launch day, and a steady churn rate and inflow of new customers. It does not model refunds, discounts, upgrades or payment fees. ## Choosing your numbers Nobody publishes a reliable waitlist-to-paid conversion rate, so the share who pay is your own estimate. The default of 3% is the low end of the 3% to 5% range that Kyle Poyar and Lenny Rachitsky call good for freemium self-serve products in Lenny's Newsletter. A freemium user has tried the product and a waitlist signup has not, so treat it as a comparison, not a benchmark, and replace it with what your own list does when you offer it something at a price. Churn defaults to 5% a month as a placeholder to replace with your own; if customers pay a year up front, set it to 0% for the first year. ## How to read the result The launch-day figure is the money the waitlist alone brings. The month 12 figure shows whether new customers keep up with churn: if MRR falls, the launch is front-loaded and growth has to come from a channel that runs after launch. The settling point shows the business these rates support in the long run, whatever the waitlist size. ## What moves it Launch MRR moves in proportion to the waitlist, the conversion rate and the price, so doubling any one doubles it. Over the year, churn and new customers matter more than the starting point. A warm waitlist, one that confirmed its email and [heard from you while it waited](https://getlaunchlist.com/features/updates), is the one most likely to pay. ## Sources - [Lenny's Newsletter, What is a good free-to-paid conversion rate (Kyle Poyar and Lenny Rachitsky, 2023)](https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/what-is-a-good-free-to-paid-conversion): The default share who pay: 3%, the low end of the 3% to 5% range it calls good for freemium self-serve products. Checked 2026-10-15. ## Frequently asked questions ### How do I calculate MRR from my waitlist? Multiply the number of people on your waitlist by the share you expect to pay, then by your monthly price. For example, 1,000 signups, 3% paying and $20 a month gives 30 customers and $600 MRR on launch day. ### What is a typical waitlist-to-paid conversion rate? There is no reliable published figure for waitlists. The nearest published comparison is free-to-paid conversion: Kyle Poyar and Lenny Rachitsky call 3% to 5% good for freemium self-serve products. A waitlist signup has not used the product yet, so test your own rate by offering early access at a price. ### What churn rate should I use? Use your own if you have paying customers. If you do not, pick a number and rerun the projection with a higher one to see how much the plan depends on it. If customers pay a year up front, monthly churn is 0% until renewal. ### What is the difference between MRR and ARR? MRR is the recurring revenue you collect in a month. ARR is the same figure for a year, usually MRR × 12. Neither includes one-off payments. ### How big a waitlist do I need? Divide the launch MRR you want by your conversion rate times your price. At 3% paying and $20 a month, $5,000 MRR at launch needs about 8,334 signups. A higher price or a warmer list cuts that number. ## Glossary terms - [Early access](https://getlaunchlist.com/glossary/early-access.md) - [Pre-launch waitlist](https://getlaunchlist.com/glossary/pre-launch-waitlist.md) ## Related tools - [Waitlist growth simulator](https://getlaunchlist.com/tools/waitlist-growth-simulator.md): Project how big your waitlist gets in the weeks before launch, with and without referrals. - [Startup runway calculator](https://getlaunchlist.com/tools/startup-runway-calculator.md): Work out how many months of cash you have from your burn rate, revenue and growth. - [TAM SAM SOM calculator](https://getlaunchlist.com/tools/tam-calculator.md): Size your market bottom-up: customers you could sell to, times what each pays a year. - [Product Hunt upvote calculator](https://getlaunchlist.com/tools/launch-day-forecaster.md): Estimate the upvotes your own list and network bring to a Product Hunt launch, and what closes the gap.